Consumer Sentiment

July 29, 2009
Matt Isleib

 

No LoanClassroom has not been forgotten about, we do need to originate loans at Eversley Capital Mortgage LLC Norwalk, CT to pay the bills and July has been great.

Not that awesome for consumer sentiment though. In July it continued to head down. In fact consumer confidence in July dipped from an index level of 49.3 in June to 46.6 in July. Keep in mind a rating of 90 is a number that suggests the economy is humming along.

Hey, just because the stock market is up does not mean consumer spending is back. In fact the Dow is now is positive territory for the year and up a staggering 38 percent from the March low of 6,500. Just because there was some positive housing news in July does not mean we are heading up from here. A gain in housing starts or existing home sales is pale in a comparison. When you are saying home figures have increased you are starting at historic lows to compare the increase from so in reality it really is not much to hang your hat on.

The number to watch is the job report. If you have religiously read my blog here you would know I have preached jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. They are the key to any recovery. Forget the equity market, forget existing home sales or permits. If the job market picture is looking better then consumer confidence is going to be better. Once we get some stabilization where job losses are concerned and have several consecutive strong months then we can start yelling turnaround.